The year has a lot to offer Nigeria. There will be general elections, transition of government and national population and housing census scheduled after the elections in April 2023. While the attention of Nigerians is fixed on the coming elections, the federal government is also planning a census which many people may not be aware of.

Nigeria has conducted census over the years but it has not been near accurate or less controversial.

The controversy often is from the ethno-religious interests, regional sensitivity, quest for ethno-religious superiority and dominance and refusal to be dominated. Nigeria’s census is one of the catalysts of social tensions.

A lot of developmental strategies and derivatives are hinged on the population of the country. This necessitates a lot of political shenanigans often played with Nigeria’s census.

The population of the country is an integral part of national development, especially in the allocation of resources and revenue, policy planning and execution for the three tiers of government as well as the private sector. It is equally important to know the demographic spread for the improvement of infrastructure and provision of adequate social amenities for the population.

Since 2006, Nigeria has not had any census which is supposed to be done every ten years. The population data has been on a forecast. While it is ripe to conduct another census, we must not look away from the politics of the census and its outcome.

Nigeria’s population census has been riddled with politics and controversy starting from the census of 1911. The 1952 count done prior to independence gave higher figures to the north. This gave the region an undue advantage of more seats in the parliament than the east and west combined. Harold Smith, a former colonial civil servant, claimed as obtained from Cambridge.org, “that the figures of the last colonial census in 1952 had been inflated to guarantee that the North had more than 50 per cent of the total population. – the consequence of British perceptions of the North as more collaborative and conservative, compared to other regions that were seen as subversive sites of nationalist agitation.”

The first census after independence was conducted in 1962. It was cancelled after the declaration of the results, because it did not meet the ‘expectations’ of the political elite. The 1963 census, which was accepted politically, was with much rancor as it was termed as ‘negotiated’.

The results up till the 2006 census were also marred by controversy. The National Population Commission, in official gazette on the 2006 census admitted that ‘varying degrees of over-enumeration of population was rampant {in 1991 census} throughout the country coupled with omission of certain settlements in the earlier census exercises, and this possibly contributed much to the unacceptability of the census.’

The 2006 census devoid of questions on ethnicity and religion is a basis for socio-political rivalry that has continued to affect Nigeria’s development.

According to the former Chairman of the National Population Commission (NPC) Mr. Festus Odimegwu had said, “No census has been credible in Nigeria since 1816. Even the one conducted in 2006 is not credible. I have the records and evidence produced by scholars and professors of repute; this is not my report. If the current laws are not amended, the planned 2016 (2023) census will not succeed,”

The NPC Act has it that the census will not be conducted until a presidential proclamation and after the census is conducted, the Chairman of the NPC will present the report to the president – if he is satisfied with the census results, he will within 30 days, present it to the Council of State (CoS) who will advise the president to accept or reject the report.

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The CoS can advise the president on the grounds that “the population census contained in the report is inaccurate; or the report is perverse. The President shall reject the report accordingly and no reliance shall be placed upon any such report by any authority or person or for any purpose whatsoever.” This is the basis for the politics of the census in Nigeria and why there may not be a stop on the controversies allegedly engendered by manipulations and falsification of figures marring the census result based on the dominant interests of the CoS.

Based on the falsified census of 1952, there seem to be efforts to maintain the trajectory of such figures as allocated to the regions, religions and ethnic groups.

“Religion and ethnicity, unarguably, are important indices in the demographics of any country.Due to the volatile nature of these items in our national discourse, it was agreed that religion and ethnicity should not be included in the {2023} census questionnaire in order to insulate the census process and outcomes from unnecessary controversies.” The Director, Public Affairs, NPC, Dr Isiaka Yahaya, stated in a statement.

Nigeria’s census will continue to be controversial if the main drivers of social concern – religion and ethnicity, keep being removed. It is important that religion and ethnicity is in the question so as to reduce the feeling of a manipulated result that affects the numerical strength of the ethnic and religious groups.

To this effect, the Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, advised NPC to “Be accurate and impartial. Declare what you capture. If the population of the state is less than 15 million, it is false and inaccurate. Do your work accurately.’’ In the same way, the Igbo socio-cultural organisation, Ohaneze had said the exercise reduced the Igbo to a minority group.

On these concerns, one would ask why President Buhari administration is pushing the census at the end of his tenure and in election year.

Since the start of the Buhari administration, there have been policies and moves that are sinister, especially the frantic effort to recreate the grazing routes and reserves, the silent but steady push of the Water Resources Bill touted as land grab, the construction of railway to Maradi in Niger Republic and others.

In the wake of the mayhem by the Fulani herdsmen, the administration claimed the marauders came from other African countries. Recently, National Identity Management Commission officials were caught registering foreigners for national identity number in Niger Republic.

With these, one will ask again, what interest does the Buhari administration have to push for census on his way out? Does he want to manipulate the results to favour his people by inflating the number given the authority he has or does he want to leave a legacy? Buhari had shown parochialism and nepotism.

For Nigeria to get it right, the law should be revamped as the power to accept or reject numbers – not favourable to their interest, is made by few people. Secondly, the census should be extensively conducted in a transparent and convincing manner; otherwise, in counting Nigerians, politics will continue to influence the outcome and the exercise of 2023 will be viewed with bias and controversy.